2014 Cilt 8 Sayı 24

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Modelling of minimum water levels of Lake İznik by using time series models
(Uludağ Üniversitesi, 2014-12-23) Özen, Arda; Ediş, Semih; Göl, Ceyhun
Minimum lake-level has important impacts on lake ecology (such as submerged plant growth, in-lake nutrients concentrations, physicochemical properties of lakes, lake biodiversity and lake primary production). However, prediction of lake water levels is important in watershed management for planning, design, construction, and operation of lakeshore structures and also in the management of freshwater lakes for water supply purposes. In the present paper, autoregressive moving average (ARMA) techniques were applied to test the power of predictability of models for minimum lake-level variations in Lake İznik. The measurements at the Lake Iznik in Bursa, for the period of 1955-2002 were used for training, testing, and validating the employed models (AR,MA and ARMA). The results obtained by the ARMA (2,2) model indicated that it performs better than other models in predicting minimum lake-levels. Our results also showed the possibility of predicting minimum lake water levels by using its own minimum lake levels data without the need of using any other data.